SWS: 40% of adult Pinoys say economy will improve in next 12 months

At least 40% of Filipinos say that the economy will improve in the next 12 months while 44% say there will be no changes, according to the most recent quarterly national survey conducted by the Social Weather Survey.

In the survey conducted from December 8 to 11, 2023, 10% say that the economy will worsen while 5% did not give an answer.

The Net Economic Optimism remains very high with +30. The figure, however, is lower in December 2023 compared to +35 in September 2023.

The Net Economic Optimism score has been at very high levels, with a range of +30 to +39, since March 2023, following a decline from the excellent levels from December 2021 to December 2022.

The score used to be at mediocre levels, according to the survey, of -9 in July 2020 and -5 in September 2020 and a high +24 in November 2020, during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The Fourth Quarter 2023 Social Weather Survey, using face-to-face interviews of 1,200 adults (18 years old and above) nationwide with 300 each in Metro Manila, Balance Luzon (or Luzon outside Metro Manila), the Visayas, and Mindanao.

The sampling error margins are ±2.8% for national percentages, and ±5.7% each for Metro Manila, Balance Luzon, the Visayas, and Mindanao.

Net Economic Optimism

As of December 2023, Net Economic Optimism was highest in Metro Manila (very high +36), followed by Mindanao (very high +32), Balance Luzon (or Luzon outside Metro Manila) (very high +30), and the Visayas (high +25).

Comparing the latest figures with September 2023, Net Economic Optimism fell from excellent to very high in Balance Luzon, down by 16 points from +46. In Mindanao, the score fell from excellent to very high, down by 9 points from +41.

However, it rose from fair to very high in Metro Manila, up by 20 points from +16 while in the Visayas, the score is higher from fair to high or up by 10 points from +15.

Net Economic Optimism falls among elementary graduates and non-elementary graduates

Net Economic Optimism was highest among those who either graduated from college or took post-graduate studies (very high +35), followed by those who either finished junior high school, had some vocational schooling, had some senior high school, finished senior high school, completed vocational school, or attended some college (or junior high school graduates) (very high +34), those who either finished elementary or had some high school education (or elementary graduates) (high +24), and those who either had no formal education or some elementary education (or non-elementary graduates) (high +22).

Compared to September 2023, Net Economic Optimism fell from excellent to high among elementary graduates, down by 18 points from +42 the same trend was recorded for non-elementary graduates, from very high to high or down by 9 points from +31.

However, the figure rose from high to very high among college graduates, up by 9 points from +26 and it stayed at a very high +34 among junior high school graduates.

Net Economic Optimism and Net Personal Optimism

The Net Economic Optimism is higher among Personal Optimists (excellent +56) than among those who said “No Change” (fair +15) and among Personal Pessimists (extremely low -37).

Compared to September 2023, Net Economic Optimism stayed excellent among Personal Optimists, hardly moving from +54. But the figure fell from high to fair among those who said “No Change” with 10 points lower compared to the previous survey of +25.

Among Personal Pessimists, the figure also fell from low to extremely low or down by 18 points from -19.

But it stayed at a very high +34 among junior high school graduates.

Higher Net Economic Optimism among Gainers than Losers

The December 2023 survey found 30% saying their quality-of-life was better than twelve months before (Gainers), 25% saying it got worse (Losers), and 45% saying it was the same (Unchanged), compared to a year ago.

Net Economic Optimism was higher among Gainers (excellent +51) than among the Unchanged (high +26) and Losers (fair +13).

Compared to December 2023, Net Economic Optimism stayed excellent among Gainers, up by 7 points from +44. Among the unchanged, this fell from excellent to high or down by 14 points from +40.

The same trend was reported for Losers, as the figure fell from high to fair or down by 7 points from +20.

Higher Net Economic Optimism among the Self-Rated Non-Poor than the Self-Rated Poor

The December 2023 survey found 47% of Filipino families rated themselves as Mahirap or Poor, 33% rated themselves as Borderline (by placing themselves on a horizontal line dividing Poor and Not Poor), and 20% rated themselves as Hindi Mahirap or Not Poor.

Net Economic Optimism was higher among adults who belong to families who consider themselves Not Poor (excellent +41) than among those who belong to families who consider themselves as Borderline Poor (high +27) and among those who belong to families who consider themselves as Poor (high +28).

Compared to September 2023, Net Economic Optimism stayed excellent among adults who belong to Self-Rated Not Poor families, hardly moving from +43.

For Borderline Poor families, the figure fell from very high to high or down by 7 points from +34 while for Self-Rated Poor families the figure fell from very high to high or down by 4 points from +32.