PAGASA raises La Niña alert

March 8, 2024 | 12:00am

MANILA, Philippines —  Saying El Niño has shown signs of weakening, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) raised a La Niña watch yesterday.

PAGASA said model forecasts show an increasing probability that La Niña would develop starting June.

La Niña, which is the cool phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific, is characterized by unusually cooler than average sea surface temperatures.

It is associated with above normal rainfall that may trigger massive flooding and landslides.

The pre-development of La Niña may delay the onset of the rainy season, according to the state weather bureau.

Ana Solis, PAGASA climate monitoring and prediction section chief, said current conditions show a 55 percent chance that La Niña would develop in the next six months.

However, Solis said the phenomenon is uncertain, noting that the impact of El Niño is still affecting the country.

“PAGASA will continue to closely monitor the ongoing El Nino, its effect on the local climate and the possibility of La Niña,” she said.

The state weather bureau said El Niño is expected to persist until May.

The dry season is expected to be declared this month, with a maximum of only one tropical cyclone entering or developing in the Philippine area of responsibility.

Rainfall in March is likely to be below normal.

Drought-hit provinces

PAGASA said 30 provinces – 25 in Luzon and five in the Visayas – may experience meteorological drought conditions by the end of this month.

Another 22 provinces may experience dry spell while 15 more provinces have the potential for dry conditions.

PAGASA said 24 provinces had experienced drought as of the end of February.

The government’s El Niño task force had earlier said up to 80 provinces may be affected by El Niño as warmer temperatures are expected in April and May.

PAGASA said government agencies and the public should take precautionary measures against the impact of the weather systems.

Drought conditions are characterized by below normal rainfall or 21 to 60 percent reduction from the average for five consecutive months.

Below normal rainfall conditions for three consecutive months are also experienced in drought-hit areas.