Too early to revise growth targets – Balisacan

Global economic uncertainty remains a concern, but it may be too early to revise Philippine growth targets, National Economic and Development Authority Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said.

“We’ll see. There are many things are happening especially with all this uncertainty in the global economy. We need to revisit. We just revised the figures,” Mr. Balisacan told reporters on March 7.

The Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) in December widened the gross domestic product (GDP) growth target to 6-8% for 2025 until 2028, due to “evolving domestic and global uncertainties.”

“It’s too early to change at this point but we need to be watchful and be flexible because of this uncertainty,” he added.

Budget Secretary and DBCC Chair Amenah F. Pangandaman said historically, the committee keeps its target unchanged during the first and second quarter of the year.

A DBCC meeting is scheduled at the end of March, but a technical working groups will hold a meeting next week.

Asked if the lower-end of the growth target is still possible this year, Mr. Baliscan said: “I’m not saying it’s no longer doable, but I think we will give ourselves the opportunity of seeing the numbers in May.”

The economy expanded by a weaker-than-expected 5.2% in the fourth quarter, bringing full-year GDP growth to 5.6% for 2024, missing the government’s 6-7% target.

Mr. Balisacan said “uncertainty in the global environment and any potential deterioration” is a concern, but easing inflation and robust labor market signal a “good” first quarter performance.

The inflation eased to 2.1% in February from 2.9% in January and 3.4% a year ago. This was also below the 2.2%-3% forecast by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas.

Mr. Balisacan also anticipates the inflation to remain within the target in the following months.

“Of course, the other pillar that we are worried about is the exports, the external sector of the economy,” he said.

The US government’s new tariffs would indirectly affect the Philippines as no country would be spared, Mr. Balisacan said.

“The past two years, the exports sector of our economy, the external sector, was not good. As I said, most of the growth that we had experienced was largely domestic. There’s investment coming in too, but it’s still quite weak,” he added.

The NEDA Chief emphasized the need for the country to diversify its markets to be more resilient to shocks, and be aggressive in entering free trade agreements. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante