IMF revised our projected FY24 GDP growth to 6.2%

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) [link] fine-tuned its projection for our FY24 GDP growth yesterday, increasing it from 6.0% to 6.2%. According to the IMF, this is due to the “carryover from a better-than-expected outturn in the last quarter of 2023”. The Philippines is projected to be the fastest-growing economy in the region for FY24, with the second-fastest (Indonesia) projected to grow at just 5.0%. The ASEAN regional average projected growth is 4.5%.

MB bottom-line: For years our growth rate suffered from an expanding rot through the Duterte years relative to our regional peers, punctuated by our regional-worst -9.5% GDP growth in 2020 during the administration’s tragic mishandling of the COVID crisis and the economic repercussions of that set of government actions and policies. By next year, though, the IMF projects that Vietnam will overtake us as the region’s fastest growing economy, but that Vietnam and the Philippines will remain as #1 and #2 in the ASEAN region through 2029 with annual GDP growth rates hovering at or approaching 6.5%. Demographics are a hell of a drug! President Marcos hasn’t demonstrated any special economic skills through his administration so far, but I’ll take the steady hand of an average manager over the erratic and emotional hand of an incompetent and reactive manager any day.

—

Merkado Barkada is a free daily newsletter on the PSE, investing and business in the Philippines. You can subscribe to the newsletter or follow on Twitter to receive the full daily updates.