California Primary 2024 Preview: Senate, House Races Draw Interest

California is a big part of Super Tuesday, but don’t expect a big turnout in the state.

With little drama in the presidential primaries, voters have been slow to turn in their mail ballots so far, and lackluster participation is expected for this election. Out of more than 22 million mail ballots issued to registered voters in early February, only about 16 percent were returned by mid-Tuesday.

“Turnout is probably going to be a record low for a presidential primary in California,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic political consultant and political data expert. He predicted that less than a third of registered voters would cast ballots in California.

If that forecast holds true, an electorate that is older, whiter and more conservative than usual would make a number of consequential decisions. Among them:

Who will succeed Feinstein?

After Senator Dianne Feinstein died in September, Gov. Gavin Newsom quickly filled the vacancy by appointing Laphonza Butler, then the president of the political action committee Emily’s List. But she is not running to keep the seat.

The subsequent open primary has drawn a crowd of aspiring successors. For months, the clear front-runner, based on polls and fund-raising, has been Representative Adam Schiff, 63, a Democrat from Burbank who served as the lead prosecutor in Mr. Trump’s first impeachment trial.

Locked in a tight race for second place are Representative Katie Porter, 50, an Orange County Democrat and former law professor known for her takedowns of powerful leaders during congressional hearings; and Steve Garvey, 75, a former first baseman for the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres. He is the only Republican among the leading contenders for the runoff.

Representative Barbara Lee, 77, a progressive Democrat from Oakland, has polled consistently in fourth place.