Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch

Politics|Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch https://www.nytimes.com/article/house-races-congress-control.html U.S. World Business Arts Lifestyle Opinion Audio Games Cooking Wirecutter The Athletic You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load. Democrats are targeting incumbent Republicans in a […]

Tomas Kauer - News Moderator Tomas Kauer - News Moderator
Apr 7, 2024 - 03:55
Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch

Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch thumbnail

Politics|Battle for the House: These Are the Races to Watch

https://www.nytimes.com/article/house-races-congress-control.html

You have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load.

Democrats are targeting incumbent Republicans in a number of districts President Biden won in 2020 — but the general rule is, as goes the presidential race, so go House races.

Republicans currently control the U.S. House of Representatives by a slim margin, and this fall will defend 17 districts won by President Biden in 2020.Credit…Kent Nishimura for The New York Times

Jonathan Weisman

Control of the U.S. House of Representatives, at this point in the election cycle, is anybody’s guess.

Right now, the House is divided by just one or two votes, with Republicans clinging to the slimmest of majorities. The Democratic Party is similarly fighting to keep control of the Senate, where it has a one-seat majority.

At first glance, it may appear that House Democrats have the better chance of seizing the majority in 2025 than Republicans do. Republicans occupy 17 districts won by President Biden in 2020, while Democrats hold just five districts won by former President Donald J. Trump.

But the general rule is, as goes the presidential race, so go House races, because partisanship and turnout can hold more sway than personal knowledge of the candidates. Here are the types of races to watch that could decide control of the House.

Incumbent Republicans in districts won by Biden: Reliably blue states

Image

Representative Mike Garcia of California at the Capitol last year. Mr. Garcia’s northern Los Angeles County district voted heavily for President Biden in 2020, but Mr. Garcia still won the seat by 333 votes.Credit…Kenny Holston/The New York Times

California is a key battleground in the fight for the House majority in 2024. Even if the presidential race is not competitive, the race for an open Senate seat could juice turnout. Here, Democrats see a number of prime pickup opportunities in the form of Republicans who hold seats in districts that Mr. Biden swept, in some cases by double digits, in the last presidential election. However, some of these same districts swung toward Republicans in the 2022 midterms, illustrating the tossup nature of many of these areas.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.

Thank you for your patience while we verify access.

Already a subscriber? Log in.

Want all of The Times? Subscribe.

Read More