While tariffs have put a damper on what had been an ongoing cargo surge at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, prospects could now be brightening temporarily with a rebounds this summer, according to some projections.

The National Retail Federation and Hacket Associates said this week that import cargo at the nation’s major container ports can expect to see a rebound through summer with retailers taking advantage of a 90-day reduction in tariffs that were recently imposed on China. The projections are based on the Global Port Tracker report released on Monday, June 9, by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

Port of Long Beach CEO Mario Cordero said this week that he is now “cautiously optimistic” about prospects that “import cargo will rebound at the end of June and into July just in time for the peak shipping season, when retailers stock the shelves with back-to-school supplies and begin preparations for the winter holidays.”

But through May, both the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach were seeing canceled sailings.

“Peak season starts in July,” Corderos said on May 2, referring to the time when shippers begin sending over fall goods for stores. That is the time, he said then, when they begin looking to order those goods.

“But they’re not doing it,” Cordero added a month ago, “and the more we delay, the increased chance there will be that we won’t have those products on the store shelves.”

But this week, Cordero acknowledged the fluidity of the changes in trade policy.

“We will continue to monitor the dynamic changes in trade policy and how they will impact major milestones,” he said, “such as the July 8 expiration of the 90-day pause on the across-the-board reciprocal tariffs, except for China.”

Port of Los Angeles Executive Director Gene Seroka was traveling this week and was unavailable for comment.

But Jonathan Gold, the National Retail Federation’s vice president for supply chain and customs policy, expressed optimism about the months ahead.

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” he said in a statement this week.

“Retailers had paused their purchases and imports previously because of the significantly high tariffs,” he added. “They are now looking to get those orders and cargo moving in order to bring as much merchandise into the country as they can before the reciprocal tariff and additional China tariff pauses end in July and August.”

The goal for retailers, Gold said, is for consumers to find the products they need at affordable prices.

But there remains uncertainty, he said, about what happens after those pauses end.

“We strongly encourage the administration to continue negotiating agreements with our trading partners,” Gold said, “in order to restore predictability and stability to the supply chain.”

Among those who have felt the squeeze are dockworkers who have seen work hours and shifts dropping. While Seroka said in May that he does not anticipate mass layoffs, the pain is being felt with fewer shifts.

Many retailers, Gold said, suspended or canceled orders after the Trump administration announced a 145% tariff on China in April but have resumed imports after tariffs were reduced to 30% and a 90-day pause that will last until Aug. 12 was announced. The higher reciprocal tariffs on other nations have also been paused until July 9 as the administration negotiates with those countries.

“Our projections,” said Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett, “show that May saw a significant reduction in imports as shippers responded to the higher tariff environment.”

Importers, he said, are expected to take advantage of tariff reductions in June through August, but if higher tariffs are not delayed again the final four months of the year, the ports can expect to see declining import volumes.