THE PHILIPPINES’ agricultural output may have posted modest annual growth in the first quarter, as the crops sector benefited from favorable weather conditions, analysts said.

Agriculture Secretary Francisco P. Tiu Laurel, Jr. on Tuesday said he is expecting to see growth in all farm sectors except for hogs in the first quarter.

“Growth except in pork. For chicken, slight (growth). For rice, slight (growth),” he told reporters.

Mr. Laurel did not elaborate, although the hog industry continues to be impacted by the African Swine Fever (ASF) outbreak.

Farm production in the January-to-March period could have expanded by around 1% year on year, former Agriculture Secretary William D. Dar said in a Viber message.

“It could have been better,” he added.

If realized, this would be an improvement from the 0.05% growth in the first quarter of 2024, and a turnaround from the 2.2% contraction in the fourth quarter of 2024.

In 2024, agricultural and fisheries output shrank by 2.2%, reflecting the impact of the El Niño weather pattern.

Federation of Free Farmers Raul Q. Montemayor said in a Viber message that the volume of agricultural production likely improved since it came from a low base.

“Value wise, (it) will be lower due to drop in palay prices… Many farmers were discouraged by the drop in palay prices and may temper production in the second semester/wet season,” Mr. Montemayor said.

Jayson H. Cainglet of the Samahang Industriya ng Agrikultura noted that farmgate prices of palay have declined to P16-P17 per kilo from a year ago.

In the first quarter, Mr. Dar said the crops sector likely saw a turnaround due to the good weather conditions and government assistance.

Crops production contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter and slumped by 4.2% for the full year.

Philippine Chamber of Agriculture and Food, Inc. President Danilo V. Fausto said the crops sector likely posted growth in the first quarter as the year-ago performance was affected by El Niño.

While there are good prospects for the palay (unmilled rice) sector, he said a contraction is likely in sugar, coconut and onion production.

“Lack of irrigation, better planting materials and soil management will affect productivity for crops,” Mr. Fausto said in a Viber message.

Former Agriculture Undersecretary Fermin D. Adrian said the crops sector will “post modest growth” driven by a rebound in palay production.

“[This] cannot be said of livestock due to the ASF, and fisheries [due to] continuing depletion of our coastal resources and little progress in development of aqua/mariculture,” he added in a Viber message.

Livestock output shrank by 3.5% in the first quarter of 2024, and by 4.3% for the entire year. This was led by hogs, which fell by 4.3% in the period ending March and by 5.1% for the full year.

ASF continues to plague hog farms in the country. According to the Bureau of Animal Industry (BAI), ASF has been detected in 54 villages as of April 11 update, up from 39 as of March 14.

Meanwhile, Mr. Dar said the poultry sector, which grew by 5.9% in the first quarter of 2024, may post minimal growth due to avian or bird flu. The poultry sector rose by 6.6% in 2024.

“While there will be growth in poultry, it will be very little due to avian flu,” he said.

The BAI last week said the country had two active cases of avian influenza in Pampanga province.

For fisheries, Mr. Fausto said he expects seaweed production to continue to decline. Seaweed output declined by 0.4% in the first quarter of 2024, and by 10.7% for the entire year.

“Lack of hatchery facilities and overfishing remain a problem for our fisheries sector,” he said. — K.A.T.Atienza