By Aaron Michael C. Sy, Reporter

MORGAN SPENCER C. YAO, 26, is holding back on cryptocurrency investment amid volatile markets stemming from a global trade war.

“The crypto market follows the tech market, which is affected by investors’ outlook on the economy, which has been on the downside lately because of tariffs,” he told BusinessWorld. “Tech stocks are very speculative.”

Arlone P. Abello, executive director and founding chairman of the Innovative Movement of The Philippine Association of Crypto Traders (IMPACT) and chief executive officer (CEO) at Global Miranda Miner Group, said Filipino crypto investors have turned “cautiously bullish” since US President Donald J. Trump took office in January.

Mr. Trump has issued an executive order setting up a cryptocurrency working group that would propose how to regulate digital assets and create a national cryptocurrency reserve — one that only uses tokens already owned by the government.

Mark Uyeda, acting chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has said a crypto task force would be developed to create a regulatory framework.

Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, appreciated by 15% or $14,224.95 year on year to $107,654.15 as of June 30, according to Yahoo Finance.

Mr. Abello said the US plan to establish a cryptocurrency reserve has boosted sentiment.

“Many Filipino traders are expressing renewed confidence, with some saying: ‘If the US government is taking Bitcoin seriously, so should we,’” he said in an e-mailed reply to questions.

The Philippines remains a promising region for cryptocurrency growth, with blockchain-based financial services driving adoption, Wei Zhou, CEO at Coins.ph, said in a separate e-mail.

“As regulatory frameworks evolve globally, including recent developments in the United States, the Philippines has an opportunity to enhance its local regulatory approach to build greater trust and confidence among Filipino users and investors,” he added.

He expects crypto adoption in the Philippines in the next two to three years to be boosted by rules focusing on improving accessibility and consumer protection.

“The outlook still looks positive towards blockchain technology here in the Philippines, with ongoing adoption through remittances, gaming and payments despite regulatory changes in the US,” Mr. Zhou said.

More than 10 million OFWs send over $36 billion in remittances to the Philippines yearly, Mr. Abello said. “A shift of even 10% of this volume to on-chain rails would result in billions of dollars saved in fees, while simultaneously driving greater adoption for digital wallets such as Coins.ph and GCash, as well as Web3 bridges like TON/Telegram, OKX and ApeX Pro.”

Filipino freelancers such as developers, designers and moderators are already prominent in platforms like Upwork and Discord jobs, showcasing their digital skills, he pointed out.

A growing number of Filipino talents are also upskilling through platforms like Binance Academy.

“More Filipinos are enrolling in our courses to tap into the emerging Web3 job market,” Mr. Abello said. “Looking forward, if the US under Trump reduces capital gains tax on crypto or offers incentives to Web3 startups, we anticipate more US projects hiring remote Filipino talent.”

As the US continues to expand its crypto regulatory framework, Mr. Abello expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to improve its regulation of virtual asset service providers and allow more crypto-fintech integration.

As of January, there were 13 of these providers consisting of eight active nonbanks, three nonoperational nonbanks and two banks, according to central bank data.

Mr. Abello said the digital peso or Bitcoin could eventually co-exist with physical cash and gold in the national reserves.

However, market volatility, worsened by Mr. Trump’s unpredictability, could deter Filipinos from investing in crypto, he said.

“The announcement of a US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve is bullish in the long term, but without a clear plan, it injects short-term confusion into the market,” he said. “The market hates uncertainty more than it hates bad news.”

“When narratives shift more rapidly than liquidity can adjust, volatility increases,” he added.

Mr. Zhou said market volatility could amplify short-term price movements but long-term crypto adoption in the Philippines would still be driven by expanding use cases for blockchain technology such as efficient remittances, accessible financial services and Web3 gaming.

GRASSROOTS POTENTIAL
Crypto adoption in the Philippines could also be supported by regional integration efforts, such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and discussions around regional stablecoins, Mr. Abello said, adding this could “pave the way for a Filipino-led crypto trade corridor.”

“With Singapore and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) already expressing interest in regional partnerships, the Philippines has a unique opportunity to establish itself as a prominent Web3 hub,” he said. “Notably, the Visayas and Mindanao regions are witnessing a quiet but significant boom in crypto adoption, indicating strong grassroots potential.”

Eli Becislao, Base Philippines country lead and The BLOKC co-founder and managing director, told BusinessWorld the government has become more active in exploring use cases for blockchain technology.

“If we can increase the use cases, and there is more visibility on government efforts to get involved in blockchain, people’s trust in the blockchain industry will improve,” he said in mixed English and Filipino.

“If the government can point out to overseas Filipino workers how easy and it is to remit through crypto and how low the charges are, that will become a growth driver for us to really renew sentiment because some people still think it is a scam,” he pointed out.

He added that developing a superapp that would allow day-to-day use cases of blockchain such as direct payments would significantly accelerate its adoption, but this will take about three to five years.

“Payments are one of the things that I’m really looking forward to,” Mr. Becislao said. “The moment someone creates an easy-to-use crypto payment app for everyday use, it will really drive adoption in the Philippines.”

“Killer app products take time to build. It is not fast. I think our [crypto] growth and adoption will pick up in three to five years.”

Mark Hugh Neri, country lead for Hiraya Network, said changing how crypto is being marketed by focusing on its value to consumers could boost its adoption and encourage learning.

“For example, if you have an app, you are not going to talk about how it works in the back-end,” he said. “You might focus on what value it gives consumers. Maybe we should lessen having the title Web3 blockchain in their faces,” he said in mixed English and Filipino.

Mr. Becislao noted that while state efforts to tighten the regulation of crypto asset providers could improve consumer trust, it could be harder for smaller firms because compliance with some requirements would be expensive.

“Smaller firms will really have a harder time,” he said. “Right now, even the virtual asset service provider license is hard to get. Imagine the process it would take and the money you would need to get that license. It’s really crazy.”

“A startup would not be able to really get that license. Not unless it’s well-backed and well-funded,” he added.

The SEC has issued rules requiring aspiring crypto-asset service providers to register and have a minimum paid-up capital of at least P100 million in cash or property, excluding crypto-assets.

Under the rules, they must show proof that they have sufficient financial resources to ensure business resilience.

In April, the regulator opened applications for participation in a sandbox for crypto asset service providers. The sandbox provides a controlled environment where they can test and pilot their products under relaxed rules.

Mr. Neri said crypto providers should work with the government on regulation.

“Sometimes, they are unable to factor in challenges from the consumer side,” he said, referring to crypto providers.

“One thing we would like to push is open communication with the government. We are willing to work with them so we can at least push the industry to make it less hard for everyone,” he added.