ANALYSIS of Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from Starboard Maritime Analytics, as reviewed by the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), revealed a marked increase in China Coast Guard (CCG) patrol activity in the South China Sea (SCS).

In 2024, CCG vessels collectively spent 1,939 ship-days on patrol, up from 1,652 in 2023, signaling a continued emphasis on maritime presence. However, despite this increase, the overall strategic impact of these patrols on regional claimants' activities remains limited.

The uptick in CCG patrols translated to an increase in the number of calendar days spent at most monitored locations, except for Ayungin (Second Thomas) Shoal.

While China's maritime enforcement activities remained robust, their ability to significantly alter the behavior of other claimants appeared minimal.

AMTI's assessment concentrated on six strategically significant areas within the South China Sea, four of which are claimed by the Philippines: Escoda (Sabina) Shoal, Bajo de Masinloc (Scarborough Shoal), Ayungin Shoal and Pag-asa (Thitu) Island.

The data unveiled notable shifts in the distribution and intensity of CCG patrols, reflecting evolving dynamics in maritime presence and regional contestation. The data also revealed shifts in patrol distribution and intensity.

At Ayungin Shoal, CCG patrols decreased from 302 days in 2023 to 263 days in 2024, coinciding with a July 2024 agreement between China and the Philippines aimed at reducing tensions. However, this decline was offset by increased activity at Escoda Shoal, where tensions spiked following an Aug. 19 collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels.

Patrol days at Bajo de Masinloc increased from 376 in 2023 to 516 in 2024, though much of this rise appeared to stem from improved AIS tracking rather than a substantive escalation in Chinese activity. Satellite imagery consistently confirmed at least two CCG vessels stationed at the shoal, reaffirming Beijing's commitment to its control.

Patrol days at Pag-asa Island rose from 206 in 2023 to 241 in 2024. The island, occupied by the Philippines, remains a focal point for Chinese maritime surveillance and intimidation operations.

While China's coast guard continues to project maritime dominance, its effectiveness in enforcing territorial claims through patrolling alone appears limited.

As tensions persist, the SCS remains a flash point for regional and global security interests. The coming years will determine whether China shifts toward more aggressive enforcement measures or maintains its approach of strategic persistence, seeking to consolidate its maritime claims through continuous but largely symbolic patrols.