California’s consumer confidence has risen for the first time since Election Day as the Trump administration softened some of its evolving economic policies.

My trusty spreadsheet reviewed the Conference Board’s monthly optimism yardstick, finding the index rose 22% in May from April – the biggest jump since August 2022 and the 16th-largest one-month hike in its history dating to 2007.

The index, derived from monthly polling of shoppers, has been down 19% since October, the month before Donald Trump won his second term in the White House. Yet the gyrations leave May’s measure of statewide optimism somewhat normal as consumer confidence runs 2% below its 19-year average.

Trump’s trade policies produced shockwaves from Wall Street to California’s globally oriented economy. However, the new administration’s tweaking of policies – some might say, caving to economic turmoil – has included temporarily trimming certain tariff levels.

These tariff cuts and delays are easing some anxieties. For example, the U.S. stock market has recouped much of its losses that followed initial tariffs.

Additionally, consumer spirits may be boosted by promised tax cuts advancing through Congress, breaks primarily benefiting wealthier taxpayers.

But let’s not forget that April was California’s lowest confidence reading in 52 months, dating back to mid-pandemic December 2020.

What’s moving?

California’s May confidence gain was a balanced improvement. The two measurements that build the optimism benchmark saw equal gain for the month.

The “present situation” index – tracking shoppers’ thoughts on current conditions – was 22% higher in May but has been off 2% since October. Californians think these are fairly good times, as this measure is 23% above the 19-year average.

Meanwhile, the “expectations” index – tracking the consumer’s view of the future – was 22% higher in May but still shows skittishness. It’s off by 33% since October and is 20% below the average score since 2007.

National spirits

California’s volatile economic sentiments aren’t an oddity.

Across the U.S., confidence was 14% higher for the month – the largest jump since March 2021 and the 13th-biggest jump since 2007.

Still, optimism nationwide is off 11% since October, but it’s also 7% above the average since 2007.

Americans’ view of the present situation rose 4% for the month and has been flat since October. It’s also 29% above the 19-year average.

And U.S. expectations jumped 31% for the month but are still down 21% since October and 12% below the 19-year average since 2007.

Other states

Confidence rose in five of the seven other big states tracked by the Conference Board. Here’s how each ranked based on the one-month change in optimism …

Illinois: 56% higher confidence for May from April – the state’s fifth-biggest jump since 2007. It’s up 13% since October and 51% above average.

New York: 21% higher confidence – the 21st-biggest jump since 2007. It’s off 14% since October but 16% above average.

Florida: 13% higher confidence for the month, off 8% since October, but 9% above average.

Texas: 12% higher confidence for the month, off 3% since October and -4% below average.

Michigan: 0.2% higher confidence for the month and up 7% since October, and 24% above average.

Ohio: 1% lower confidence in May and off 12% since October. Yet it’s 4% above average.

Pennsylvania: 8% lower confidence in May, down 18% since October, and 4% below average.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com