California’s consumer confidence sagged to a low last seen in the early days of the coronavirus crisis as 2025 started with the Trump administration rapidly unveiling its economic policies.

This decline in optimism was found in my trusty spreadsheet review of the Conference Board’s poll-based consumer confidence indexes for eight states, including California, and the nation for February.

California’s optimism fell 5% in the month to its lowest level since January 2021, when the state’s business climate was filled with questions about rebounding from pandemic-era limitations.

Ponder how this Golden State benchmark of shopper optimism has swiftly swung since October, just before Donald Trump won his second term in the White House. The consumer confidence index is down 19% in the four months since Election Day. Also, note that California’s optimism was at a 14-month high in October.

Historically speaking, February’s confidence measure is only 1% below the average reading of the index that started in 2007. So this is essentially typical optimism, despite many Californians having very different political views than Trump and the Republican party, which regained control of the White House and Congress.

The political gap has been reinforced by Trump’s swift implementation of policies since his inauguration. His moves include cuts in government spending and employment, actions now debated in various courts, plus immigration crackdowns and upended trade policies.

But California also faces challenges closer to home, such as rebuilding after wildfires, a shaky technology industry and long-running cost-of-living headaches.

Foggy future

California consumers’ biggest worries are about what’s next. And economic anxieties alone can weaken the business climate if caution turns to thriftiness at the cash register.

The Conference Board’s statewide “present situation” index, which tracks the current economy, fell 7% in February, the lowest since August. It’s also down 10% since pre-election October. However, the benchmark remains 13% above its 18-year average.

But the typical California shopper’s crystal ball seems fogged.

Ponder the statewide “expectations” index, a forward-looking yardstick. It’s off 4% for the month to its lowest since April 2024. This measurement of the future is down 26% since October and is 12% below average.

Not alone

Shopper angst is a national malady, too.

U.S. confidence is down 7% for the month, reaching an eight-month low. Although optimism is off 10% since October, it remains 7% above its average since 2007.

Americans view the current economy as OK. The present situation index is off 2% for the month, flat since October and 31% above average.

But like Californians, Americans’ views of the future are murky. The expectations index dropped 11% for the month and 21% since October, to 12% below average.

Mixed bag

Overall confidence for February rose in just two of the seven other states tracked by the Conference Board. But mixed optimism doesn’t fit any simple political or economic patterns.

Confidence increased in “red” Ohio, a state that backed Trump, and “blue” Illinois, which did not.

Ohio optimism was up 12% for the month, has risen 13% since October, and runs 34% above average. Illinois was up 10% for the month but is down 9% since October. February was 23% above average.

The other states, ranked by February’s change …

Michigan: Off 25% for the month, down 9% since October, and 6% above average.

Florida: Off 14% monthly, down 11% since October, and 6% above average.

Pennsylvania: Off 7% for the month, down 7% since October, and 9% above average.

New York: Off 6% monthly, 18% since October, and 11% above average.

Texas: Off 4% for the month, up 4% since October, and 3% above average.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com