Ventura County homebuying hasn’t been the same since the Federal Reserve’s war on inflation began three years ago.

That’s what my trusty spreadsheet discovered in the March homebuying report from Attom, which tracks the closed sales of existing residences and new construction, houses and condos, dating to 2005.

The Fed’s efforts to cool an overheated economy with pricier financing began in March 2022. It totally iced home sales.

For example, March 2025’s 585 sales were the third-smallest total for the month since 2005. It’s also 30% below the month’s 20-year average.

Or take a longer-term view of homebuying’s collapse.

In the 36 months since the Fed started its cost-of-living focus, 576 Ventura residences were sold in the average month vs. 876 in pandemic-twisted 2019-22.

We’re talking a 34% dive that’s also 27% slower than the 20-year average.

It’s not just a local issue. California sales tumbled 29% after the Fed acted, and the drop was 22% nationwide.

The price is wrong

When the pandemic upended the business climate, the Fed came to the rescue with cheap money, and home prices surged.

Then, numerous stimulus efforts and supply shortages boosted inflation to a four-decade high. The central bank ended its cheap money party, and yet Ventura County home prices did not reverse.

Contemplate that Ventura County’s median selling price in March of $862,000 was 1.5% under the record $875,000 set in June 2024.

Prices have risen 2.8% over 12 months, part of a 46% jump in the last six years.

Mortgage mania

The Fed’s move to raise interest rates helped to explode what house hunters pay.

In the three years of the central bank’s inflation battle, Ventura County home prices rose 7% as mortgage rates soared to 6.7% from 4.3%. That created a 41% boost to a buyer’s estimated house payments.

Contrast that to the three previous years when coronavirus-spun rates gyrated from 4.3% to historically low 2.9% back to 4.3%. Home prices rose 37% with only a 35% payment jump.

Who can afford this?

Rising home prices aren’t a sign of market strength. They’re the reason why homebuying is frozen.

Over six years, a Ventura County buyer’s typical mortgage check got 90% bigger. In that same period, there was only a 23% increase in Ventura County incomes.

So what would it take to close the affordability gap? My spreadsheet says 36% price cuts, 2.8% mortgages, or 55% pay hikes. Or a mix of the trio.

Then eyeball the budget-busting fallout this way.

Only 14% of Ventura households could qualify to buy in 2025’s first quarter, according to calculations from the California Association of Realtors.

Six years earlier, this affordability yardstick showed 29% could buy – and this qualification measure has averaged 28% since 2006.

Jonathan Lansner is the business columnist for the Southern California News Group. He can be reached at jlansner@scng.com