Nordic voters buck trend in Europe’s social-democrat stronghold, Euronews poll signals

Nordic nations are set to become the EU’s social-democrat stronghold in upcoming elections, according to exclusive polling produced by Ipsos for Euronews.

In each of Denmark, Sweden and Finland, social democrats are set to send the largest delegation, making the region something of a rarity in Europe, where it’s normally right-wing parties predicted to top the polls.

Meanwhile the rising support for the radical right seen across Europe won’t be reflected in the delegation of 51 MEPs sent by the three countries, according to the poll.

The Nordic bloc is set to lose its one ID Group MEP, from the Danish People’s Party, though that seat may be taken up instead by the Danish Democrats – a newcomer populist party yet to confirm an affiliation.

Slated to take place from 6-9 June 2024, upcoming elections to appoint 720 Members of the European Parliament are set to be one of the world’s biggest democratic exercises.

Euronews’ unprecedented survey interviewed 26,000 people in countries representing 96% of the EU population, including 1,000 in each of the three Nordic states.

Results show that – while those three nations may be the world’s happiest, according to a recent report from Gallup and Oxford University – its voters aren’t so content.

Nordic voters are set to punish the pro-European Green and Liberal parties, whose MEP total is set to plunge from 20 to 13, according to the first-of-its-kind pan-European poll.

Liberal coalition Renew is set to lose one MEP in Sweden, two in Denmark, and one in Finland, the poll said. Meanwhile Finland’s Green League could lose two lawmakers for the next five-year term, and its Swedish counterpart one.

That echoes wider trends seen across Europe, where voters are set to abandon parties such as Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance Party, and the governing German Greens.

Headline figures mask uncertainty: particularly over Denmark’s National Alliance, a longstanding party that currently has no MEPs, but is now predicted to claim two. Ipsos places it among the centre-right EPP, given reports of the preferences of its lead candidate Henrik Dahl, but it has previously been associated with Renew.

And the politics of all three countries are highly splintered. Denmark’s 15 MEPs are set to be distributed among a remarkable nine parties, and Sweden’s among eight, the poll suggested. In total, ten Nordic parties could end up sending delegations consisting of just a single MEP.